Sarnia Strategic Vote 2025 is a citizen-led movement created to address the progressive vote split in the electoral district of Sarnia-Lambton-Bkejwanong. We come from all political affiliations, as well as independents, with a common goal of assessing the strategic choice for the current election and to close the gap between the second-runner and incumbent Conservative Party candidate Marilyn Gladu.
While this proved challenging due to the political climate and emotions running high, as well as the challenge of deciphering the impact of national polls on our community with a historic NDP second-runner, we concluded the following:
● 7 out of 10 NDP supporters in Sarnia-Lambton-Bkejwanong said that they would be voting Liberal as a “strategic vote” (random sample taken from the community) ● 6-13% of total eligible votes is predicted to go to the NDP in this federal election for Sarnia-Lambton-Bkejwanong (based on sample above, as well as results from previous provincial election)
● Over 16,000 new votes in favour of Liberals needed to overturn a Conservative win this election (a staggering job, unlikely to occur this election)
We also anticipate the following, though we can’t be sure of the figures:
● Some Conservative voters and new voters will be voting Liberal due to national polls as well as the Liberal candidate pick, Councillor George Vandenberg
● Some racialized and Indigenous voters will be voting NDP
● Some union workers will be voting NDP after the Sarnia & District Labour Council endorsement of NDP candidate Lo-Anne Chan
While a vote split will occur once again, we ask the community to push for a greater voter turnout in favour of Liberal Party candidate George Vandenberg, to close the gap between the Conservative and Liberal vote. We believe that, by doing so, we will send a message - not only to our incumbent Conservative candidate, but all other party candidates - that they are accountable to their constituents first, and not their parties.
We’ve been proud to see citizens fact-checking elected officials’ statements with their voting records, and we hope political discourse continues in our community outside of election periods. We will not stand for lack of transparency. We will not stand for choosing the party line over what is best for our community. We will not stand for divisive rhetoric for political gain which has real, dangerous consequences and threatens to tear our community and country apart. Post-election, we will continue to work towards greater voter engagement, and educating the community on civic engagement, the electoral system, and electoral reform.
With rights come responsibilities. Your vote is one of them. Make it count!